Annie Duke (Decision Strategist)
Annie Duke is somewhat of a polymath. She has an academic background in psychology, and has been an incredibly successful poker player. She holds a World Series of Poker gold bracelet, and is one of the leading money winners among women in World Series of Poker history. In addition to that, she's written a number of books most recently Thinking in Bets, an exploration of decision making theory.
Topics, links and context for the audio.
- Annies journey from academia to poker to decision strategy
- Why write a book?
- “The quality of the outcome is only loosely correlated with the quality of the decision”
- Pete Carroll and the worst call in history
- The difficulty in working backwards from an outcome to evaluate decision quality
- The decision trap of resulting
- How can we be cognizant of luck and variability and how they impact our decisions before we make them?
- Failing conventionally vs focusing on the quality of decision
- Certainty seeking and being afraid to make a decision due to not being ‘sure’ enough of the outcome
- Mental tricks to face and quantify uncertainty
- Wanna bet on it?
- Why acknowledging uncertainty helps us unpack hidden information
- Why it’s hard to learn from good outcomes
- The difference between certainty and confidence
- The virtues of embracing uncertainty
- Why engaging system 2 more often isn’t the answer
- Why numeracy doesn’t override bias
- Mindfulness, meditation and decision making
- Narratives, judgement and reflection
- 2 experiments for you to go do in the laboratory of your life
- Thinking in Bets
- Annies Newsletter
- Annie on Twitter