curious.fm

Episode 8

Annie Duke (Decision Strategist)

Annie Duke is somewhat of a polymath. She has an academic background in psychology, and has been an incredibly successful poker player. She holds a World Series of Poker gold bracelet, and is one of the leading money winners among women in World Series of Poker history. In addition to that, she's written a number of books most recently Thinking in Bets, an exploration of decision making theory.

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Topics, links and context for the audio.

  • Introduction 
  • Annies journey from academia to poker to decision strategy
  • Why write a book? 
  • “The quality of the outcome is only loosely correlated with the quality of the decision” 
  • Pete Carroll and the worst call in history 
  • The difficulty in working backwards from an outcome to evaluate decision quality 
  • The decision trap of resulting
  • How can we be cognizant of luck and variability and how they impact our decisions before we make them? 
  • Failing conventionally vs focusing on the quality of decision 
  • Certainty seeking and being afraid to make a decision due to not being ‘sure’ enough of the outcome 
  • Mental tricks to face and quantify uncertainty 
  • Wanna bet on it? 
  • Why acknowledging uncertainty helps us unpack hidden information 
  • Why it’s hard to learn from good outcomes 
  • The difference between certainty and confidence 
  • The virtues of embracing uncertainty 
  • Why engaging system 2 more often isn’t the answer 
  • Why numeracy doesn’t override bias 
  • Mindfulness, meditation and decision making 
  • Narratives, judgement and reflection 
  • 2 experiments for you to go do in the laboratory of your life 
  • Thinking in Bets
  • Annies Newsletter 
  • Annie on Twitter
  • HowIDecide.org